The Sagaing Fault and Myanmar’s Earthquake History
- Tom McAndrew
- Mar 30
- 6 min read
A Land on the Move
In the heart of Southeast Asia, Myanmar’s landscape tells a story of deep and constant motion. Beneath the surface, immense geological forces are at work—grinding, shifting, and occasionally erupting in violent earthquakes. At the centre of this geophysical drama is the Sagaing Fault, a colossal fracture stretching over 1,200 kilometres from the Himalayas in the north to the Andaman Sea in the south.
For centuries, this fault has shaped Myanmar’s terrain, history, and the daily lives of its people. Cities such as Mandalay, Nay Pyi Taw, and Yangon sit precariously close to this restless boundary, making them highly vulnerable to seismic activity. From ancient royal capitals to modern metropolises, no settlement near the fault is truly safe.
But what makes the Sagaing Fault such a ticking time bomb? And what can its history of destruction teach us about the future?
A Tectonic Time Bomb
The Sagaing Fault is no ordinary geological feature—it marks the boundary between the Indian Plate and the Sunda Plate. As the Indian Plate slowly pushes northeast at around 5 cm per year, it grinds against the Sunda Plate. This slow but relentless movement builds up enormous pressure, which is eventually released as an earthquake.
Unlike mountain-building collision zones such as the Himalayas, the Sagaing Fault is classified as a strike-slip fault, meaning it moves horizontally rather than vertically. When this motion is suddenly and violently released, the ground shakes, often with catastrophic consequences.
Geologists have estimated that the fault moves at a rate of 18–24 millimetres per year. While this may not sound dramatic, the effects over centuries are staggering. The accumulated energy is enough to produce major earthquakes every few decades, making Myanmar one of Southeast Asia’s most earthquake-prone countries.
A History of Destruction
Myanmar’s past is littered with earthquakes, many of which have left deep scars on the nation’s cities and communities. From the royal city of Ava in the 19th century to the modern streets of Yangon, the ground has never been truly stable.
One of the earliest recorded earthquakes was the 1839 Ava Earthquake, which struck the Mandalay region with an estimated magnitude of 7.4 to 8.0. The devastation was near-total. The royal palace collapsed, entire temples were reduced to rubble, and cracks split open the ground. The once-thriving city of Ava never fully recovered from the catastrophe, and historical records suggest that tens of thousands of people perished.
In 1912, another powerful earthquake, measuring 7.5, struck Maymyo (now Pyin Oo Lwin), causing severe damage across central Myanmar. Buildings crumbled, railway lines were twisted beyond repair, and landslides buried entire villages.
Perhaps one of the deadliest earthquakes in Myanmar’s modern history close to Yangon occurred on 5 May 1930, when a 7.3-magnitude quake struck Bago and Yangon. The impact on Myanmar’s then-capital was devastating. Over 550 people were killed, with many trapped under collapsed buildings. Fires broke out, compounding the destruction. Streets were filled with the wounded, and survivors had to navigate a city reduced to chaos.
Having lived and taught in Yangon, reading about the 1930 earthquake reminds me of the day I flew out of Yangon in 2023, that very morning a tremor caused my high rise building to sway making having a feeling of sea sickness as my family and I lived on the 31st floor.
In 1946, another major earthquake, measuring 7.7, struck Sagaing and Mandalay, toppling historic pagodas, bridges, and homes. The Mandalay Palace walls cracked, a grim reminder of how even structures built to last centuries could be undone in mere seconds.
Before the earthquakes of March 28th 2025, the most recent significant earthquake occurred in 2012 near Thabeikkyin, north of Mandalay. The 6.8-magnitude quake was powerful enough to destroy homes, collapse bridges, and trigger landslides along the Irrawaddy River. At least 26 people were killed, and hundreds of villages suffered damage. The disaster served as a wake-up call—Myanmar remains at the mercy of its geological forces.
March 28th 7.7 Richter scale Earthquake
On 28 March 2025, at 12:50 pm local time, a powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar’s Sagaing Region, with its epicentre located near Mandalay, the country’s second-largest city. This earthquake occurred along the Sagaing Fault, a major geological boundary where the Indian Plate and Sunda Plate grind against each other. The intense shaking reached a Modified Mercalli Intensity of IX (Violent), meaning it caused severe destruction.
This was the strongest earthquake in Myanmar since 1912 and the second deadliest in the country’s modern history, with only the 1930 Bago earthquake causing more casualties. The quake caused widespread damage in Myanmar and also affected Thailand and parts of Yunnan, China, where hundreds of buildings were damaged.
In Myanmar alone, more than 1,600 people have lost their lives, while 17 people died in Thailand. Over 3,400 people were injured, and many more were reported missing. One of the worst-hit areas was a construction site in Bangkok, where weak ground conditions and a lack of earthquake awareness made buildings more vulnerable to shaking, despite the city being far from the epicentre.
Both Myanmar and Thailand declared a state of emergency and warned that the number of casualties could rise. In Myanmar, ongoing civil conflict has made disaster response efforts even more difficult, delaying rescue and relief operations.
Why Are Some Areas More at Risk?
Not all parts of Myanmar experience earthquakes equally. The Sagaing Fault is divided into three main segments:
Northern Segment – Less active in recorded history, but still capable of generating large earthquakes.
Central Segment – Passes through Mandalay, Ava, and Sagaing, making it one of the highest-risk areas.
Southern Segment – Includes Bago and Yangon, densely populated regions where earthquakes could cause massive destruction.
Of these, the central segment has historically been the most seismically active, with major earthquakes recorded every few decades. However, scientists warn that the southern segment, where Yangon is located, could also be overdue for a major earthquake. With millions of people living in Myanmar’s largest city, the consequences could be devastating.
Can Myanmar Prepare for the Next Big One?
Unlike cyclones or floods, earthquakes strike without warning. This makes preparation all the more crucial.
In recent years, Myanmar has taken significant steps to improve earthquake monitoring and disaster management. The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) has expanded its network of over 30 seismic monitoring stations, allowing scientists to track earth movements in real-time. International collaborations with seismologists from Japan and the US are helping Myanmar develop better hazard maps.
Building codes have also been introduced to ensure that modern structures can withstand strong earthquakes. However, enforcement remains a challenge, especially in rural areas where traditional homes are built from wood and bamboo—materials highly vulnerable to shaking.
Public awareness campaigns have increased, but many Myanmar residents still lack basic earthquake preparedness knowledge. In schools, students are now being taught the 'Drop, Cover, Hold On' method, which can significantly reduce injury risks during a quake.
Yet, despite these efforts, challenges remain. Many historic cities like Mandalay are filled with ancient pagodas and colonial-era buildings not built to withstand earthquakes. Additionally, informal settlements on the outskirts of Yangon and other cities lack the infrastructure to survive a major seismic event.
The Future of a Faulted Land
Right now, the focus is on the immediate aftermath - short term responses of rescue, provide food, water and shelter to those made homeless. All of this in a context of civil war. Despite being loathed by most local people, the military continue to have a grip on this area. It is refreshing to see international aid is being called for and welcomed by the 2021 military coup leader Min Aung Hlaing. This contrasts with the refusal to accept foreign aid in 2008 in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis leading to further misery for the people of Myanmar.
In the long term, rubble clearance and re-building of housing and infrastructure needs to take place, hopefully to more earthquake proof designs. The Sagaing Fault is not going anywhere. Its slow, relentless movement will continue, shaping Myanmar’s landscapes and cities for generations. While we cannot prevent earthquakes, we can learn from the past and prepare for the future.
For the millions living along this fault line, the challenge is clear: adapt, prepare, and stay alert. When the earth decides to move again, trust will have to be placed in the buildings. As the popular adage goes - earthquakes don't kill, buildings do. (A simplistic not wholly true statement, but the main essence of it stands true.)
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